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JAW's issues with the certification process were due to the fact that SWHD was not a new game. For Abe HD, there'd be a whole seperate set of issues with the certification process that they'd need to deal with.
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That doesn’t really invalidate my point.
Don’t forget that other indie developers have also had bad experiences with Microsoft – Jonathan Blow and Phil Fish, for example. I imagine JAW will be very unenthusiastic with publishing on Xbox unless Microsoft goes out of its way to woo developers.