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It's unlikely that boxes are gonna disappear soon. Digital distribution came some time ago and despite its popularity there are still box versions of almost every game
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I think that it's mostly a matter of boxes disappearing in countries where internet speeds are high. For instance the Netherlands right now has an average internet speed of 15mb/s.
Glassfiber connections are currently being rolled out nation wide, so that figure is expected to at least double in the next 10 years. When everyone has a speed like that, people are more likely to use digital distribution than in a country where the average download speed is still around 1mb. So physical shops may die out around here, but may thrive in remote parts of the US or Australia for example.