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As I said earlier, Valve have too much reputation to lose if they fuck up with their flagship franchise. Valve are much, much larger players in the video games industry than ID Software ever was and have a lot more to lose.
At the same time they're only human and make mistakes. If HL3 turns out to be shit, it'll be a very sad day.
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What has ID got to do with anything?
Valve won't release a shit Half Life 3, simply because they're not likely to run out of cash and be forced to release it as-is. They have their standard 'When it's done' release date for a reason, you know.