This
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Any plan that requires more than three vital things to happen is far too complex to be relied upon, since the chances of total failure rises exponentially with each additional critical variable.
Even then, the real limit is two, because only a complete idiot designs their plan to be as complicated as possible.
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leads nicely back to this
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Conspiracy theories assume that governments have so much more resources and far greater competence than they actually do. Best demonstration that they don't?
Watergate.
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which creates this:
Incompetent government + complicated evil plan = half failed evil plan that leads to conspiracies.