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As casuals vastly out number the hardcore players and most of them don't use Steam.
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I dispute this fact. I check out Steam on a regular basis and at least a third of games advertised are for the casual market. I can't compare to XBLA because I've never used it but I've always seen Steam as a very effective way of marketing a game. I regularly take a look at game websites/demos based solely on a listing on Steam.