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I mean, I could claim that green swans exist, and never find them. That does not prove that they do not exist, as I may have simply looking in the wrong places. But if I state that they do not exist, now that hypothesis is falsifiable, I can test that. By finding one green swan, I have falsified my hypothesis.
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I'm not sure who's side you're on.
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How can you possibly calculate probabilities without having made reliable observations of this sort of thing in the first place? That's not just bad science, it's logically fallacious. It's begging the question.
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I'm not calculating probabilities, I'm guessing.